Dipl.-Volkswirt Martin Nowack

11/2010 - 07/2011
scholarship holder at Dresden Leibniz Graduate School
07/2008 - 10/2010
Associate Member of the Dresden Leibniz Graduate School (DLGS)

Doctoral Thesis:
cumulative dissertation, handed in: 08/2011
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Edeltraud Günther

Possibilities of scenario planning for sanitation organizations facing demographic change

Summary:
The sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions.
Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios.

Publications:

Nowack, M.; Endrikat, J.; Günther, E.: Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2011), article in press, corrected proof, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.006,
online: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162511000576.

Nowack, M; John, S; Tränckner, J.; Günther, E.: Der demografische Wandel als Gebührentreiber in der Siedlungsentwässerung: Ein Vergleich des Demografieeffektes mit Spar-, Betriebskosten-, Kapitalkosten- und Industrieffekten. In: gwf Wassser/Abwasser 11/2010 S. 1076-1085.

Nowack, M.; Günther E.: Szenarioplanung im Integrierten Wasserressourcenmanagement, uwf - UmweltWirtschaftsForum, Vol. 17. (2009), No. 3, p. 251-255.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.: Szenarioplanung. In: Das Wirtschaftsstudium, 38. Jg. (2009), H. 3/09, S. 340-341.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.: CO2-Management von Unternehmen. In: Umweltwirtschaftsforum, 16. Jg. (2008), Heft 2, S. 49-51.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.; Weber, G.: Stand der Klimaschutzberichterstattung. In: Umweltwirtschaftsforum, 16. Jg. (2008), Heft 2, S. 105-114.

Nowack, M.: Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk (Rezension). In: Ökologisches Wirtschaften, Jg. (2008), H. 2/2008, S. 55.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.; Weber, G.: Unternehmen und Klimaschutz. In: Das Wirtschaftsstudium, 37. Jg. (2008), H. 2/08, S. 204-205.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.; Weber, G.: Real Option Thinking as a Business Approach to Deal with Climate Change Uncertainties. Conference Proceedings der 2008 Berlin Conference on the Human Demisions of Global Environmental Change/ International Conference of the Social-Ecological Research Programme in Berlin 22.-23.02.2008, S. 46.

Günther, E.; Nowack, M.; Weber, G.: How Do Companies Participating in Business Networks Relating to Climate Change Report their Climate Change Performance? Conference Proceedings der 2008 Berlin Conference on the Human Demisions of Global Environmental Change/ International Conference of the Social-Ecological Research Programme in Berlin 22.-23.02.2008, S. 49.

Weber, G.; Günther, E.; Nowack, M.: Application of real options thinking for the management of climate change risks. Conference Proceedings der 3rd NZSSES International Conference 2008, Blueprints for Sustainable Infrastructure, 9.-12. Dezember 2008 in Auckland, Neuseeland, S. 133.